It’s been a really dry month for a lot of the south-central US, especially central Oklahoma and Texas. Here, little to no rain means monthly precipitation anomalies are effectively as low as possible. It’s a sore thumb even of a US wholly at only 90% of normal for the month.
The result has been an increase in drought delineation across the region- moderate to locally significant drought now outlines a sizable fraction of the two states.
Luckily, though, a change in the barometric pressure is imminent.
A rambunctious midlevel storm system entering the Pacific Northwest today and tomorrow will find itself suddenly smooshed up against stout downstream blocking, unable to move further east. The stuck trough will have no choice but to slowly unravel in place, a process that will take it from the middle of the work week into the middle of the weekend.
As the jet stream weirds, a persistent influx of Gulf moisture streaming north into a region of synoptic-scale ascent will promote a favorable setup for moderate rain across the parched south-central US that will last a long time.
The result? The potential for substantial 5-day rainfall across a part of the country that needs it.