Forecasts and Analysis – blog.weather.us

Forecasts and Analysis Posts

Severe Today, Cooler Tomorrow

Changes are afoot this morning as a longwave trough bearing a powerful cold front digs down into the middle of the country. Link Behind the front exists a cooler, drier …

by Meghan Gulledge/ 06/21/2021/ No Comments/

Tracking the Tropics: What to Expect From PTC 3

We’ve been watching this area of low pressure for over a week now as it casually and unhurriedly wandered the Bay of Campeche. It’s finally on the move with its …

by Meghan Gulledge/ 06/18/2021/ No Comments/

The Grip of a Megadrought, Part 3: A Slow, Violent Burn

Heat is pervasive, searing, angry. It swells and crashes over us like waves, smothering and suffocating and crushing. If cold is a knife, heat is a hammer. This week, from …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 06/17/2021/ No Comments/

Record-Breaking Heat Continues in the West

Link A quick look at our observed lunch time temperatures in the southwest confirm what we’ve been talking about for the past few days: it’s hot. An anomalous ridge with …

by Meghan Gulledge/ 06/16/2021/ No Comments/

The Tropics Awaken: Discussing Development

As you may have noticed this morning, if you’re a routine checker of the NHC site anyway, the tropics have suddenly decided to awaken with three areas of interest on …

by Meghan Gulledge/ 06/14/2021/ No Comments/

The Grip of a Megadrought, Part 2: Lurching Through Disaster

It’s amazing what two months of a persistent atmospheric pattern can do in an environment as fragile as the West’s. In 2017, two months of repetitive, fanning atmospheric river events …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 06/14/2021/ No Comments/

The Grip of a Megadrought, Part 1: A Catastrophe Crawls To Life

Some weather disasters strike with a suddenness rivaled only by their ferocity. They are tornadoes, flash floods, derechos, blizzards and hurricanes; they lash out all at once, pummeling mankind from …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 06/12/2021/ No Comments/

Heavy Rains Target the Mid-Atlantic Today

It’s barely 10 am on the east coast and already we are experiencing dew points well into the 70s in the Mid-Atlantic, Mid-West, and points south. Link This oppressive “air …

by Meghan Gulledge/ 06/11/2021/ No Comments/

Destructive Severe Storms Take Aim at North-Central US

A significant round of thunderstorms capable of producing highly damaging winds, large to giant hail, and scattered tornadoes will be possible across the northern Plains this evening. A synoptic-scale environment …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 06/10/2021/ No Comments/

As Dangerous Heat Builds, Thunderstorms Erupt

Low pressure systems are the drama queens of the atmosphere. As air erupts upwards to fill mid-atmospheric vacuums, rotating cyclonically with the coriolis force, it can smash airmasses together with …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 06/05/2021/ No Comments/

Thunderstorms Threaten Northeast with Damaging Wind; Heavy Rain

Much of the Northeast/mid-Atlantic area has been under the influence of a diffuse, stubborn midlevel trough as of late. In the exit region of this disturbance, the region has seen …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 06/03/2021/ No Comments/

Miserable Memorial Day Weekend On Tap for Northeast

Memorial day weekend is often cited as the unofficial start of summer. It is the date after which swimming pools open and beach attendance surges, and is often marked by …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/29/2021/ No Comments/

Expansive Central US Severe Threat Today

This morning sees an expansive low level moisture plume having overspread much of the south-central and south-eastern US, being overspread from the west by midlevel flow exceeding 40 knots. This …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/27/2021/ No Comments/