Your Thanksgiving Forecast

Thanksgiving isn’t typically a holiday we “worry about the weather” during. However, whether you’re running those last few errands, traveling to see family, or just wondering if you can shoo the kids outside after the meal so you can take a nap, the forecast does impact your day!

Let’s take a look at your Thanksgiving forecast by region.


The Eastern US

This whole region, from roughly the eastern Plains states (Arkansas, Missouri) all the way to the Northeast will be dealing with a day of changes. A deepening low, located just north of the Great Lakes by tomorrow morning, will swing eastward through out the day.

Ahead of the associated cold front, temperatures will climb and it will actually be quite pleasant. Behind the front, temperatures plummet, making for a rather chilly holiday.


Your daytime weather will generally depend on how far east you are.

For the western part of the Midwest: the front is forecast to pass through in the overnight hours. That means by daybreak Thursday, your temperatures are already falling.

For the eastern portion of the Midwest and South Central States: you will have at least some warm, though a bit windy and cloudy, weather before the front swings through between mid-afternoon and dinner time.

For the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and far eastern Southeast, you get to enjoy a full day of warmth as that low level jet pumps warmer air in ahead of the frontal passage in the evening/overnight hours.

For an idea on the timing, I’ll include the simulated radar loop:


As indicated in the loop, snow – mainly of the lake-effect and elevation persuasion – is possible on the back side of the front. Generally, accumulations are expected to be light, except perhaps if a stubborn, heavy band sets up somewhere. If that occurs, a few inches are possible.


The Central US

There isn’t much to discuss concerning this region. Except for the southern reaches (Texas, mainly), the front will clear this area overnight. It will leave behind dry air, clear skies and some frigid temperatures.


Highs in the Northern or even Central Plains states could seriously struggle to crawl out of the twenties and thirties. Probably not the best weather to send the kids out in to run off all the energy the food will give them.


The Western US

There are really only two things to note for this region.

First is a soggy Pacific Northwest.


They will once again be under the influence of a (weaker) atmospheric river. Though it isn’t as potent as some of the events we’ve seen in the past month or two, this part of the country has received quite a bit of rainfall lately which has resulted in river flooding. This particular event doesn’t seem to be too big of a threat as far as flooding goes, but we’ll need to keep our eyes on the one behind it, arriving early next week.

Still, if you reside in a flood prone area, exercise caution and stay aware of any evolving situations.


Second is the Santa Ana Winds.


Another day of gusty downsloping winds, resulting low relative humidity, and already dry fuels translates to yet another critical risk of fire weather. This event, which began today, is expected to peak tomorrow and wording just as “High-end Critical Conditions” has been used in SPC outlooks.

Probably not the best day to deep fry that turkey. Refrain from any activities that may spark a fire as conditions will be ripe for any small fire to spread quickly.



That concludes your Thanksgiving weather overview.

It’s hard to be specific with such a large amount of space to cover so if you’re looking for a more detailed forecast for your town, head on over to either the Weather Overview at or the City Charts section of for more weather info/forecasts on your area.


Have a happy and safe holiday!