Nothing reminds us that hurricane season is just around the corner like our first “official” area of interest highlighted by the NHC.
This highly disorganized little swirl just northeast of the Bahamas is the area of interest in question.
As you can see from the satellite animation, while there is an apparent lower level circulation, thunderstorm activity is scarce and not located about the center.
As one might surmise from the satellite presentation, the odds of this little bit of mischief developing are extremely low, especially as shear increases and dry air remains nearby.
Additionally, although the disturbance is currently riding along the edge of somewhat-favorable water temperatures, it is forecast to continue moving north-northeast today. This would take the already disorganized disturbance into waters too cold to support any tropical development.
Had it been forecast to travel north-northwest along the Gulf Stream AND there was less shear/dry air, we may have had a different situation on our hands. But, given the current forecast and environmental conditions, it seems we have nothing to fear from our first official “spot to watch.”
Can we expect additional areas of interest in the coming weeks?
Climatologically speaking, this time of year is generally unfavorable – both from a shear and water temperature point of view – for those long-tracking systems to form.
We do, however, need to monitor old frontal boundaries that stall over warm-ish water. Sometimes they attempt to spin up some tropical mischief, like the current disturbance did. Though they are not always successful, we will occasionally see an early season storm form close to home in late May or most of June. As we move into July, the origins of tropical activity begin to shift further away from home. If you’re interested, the climatology + maps can be found here on the NHC’s site.
Bottom line, the current disturbance is currently forecasted to be nothing to worry about. As far as future disturbances go, we’ll watch those old frontal boundaries for signs of mischief in the days ahead, though nothing is assured.