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Tropical Cyclones 101: Glossary Of Common Terms

Hi, As hurricane season is starting, we thought, you might be interested in a recap of this awesome guide from last year that helps you navigate some of the most …

by weathermodels Admin/ 06/08/2021/ No Comments/

Expansive Central US Severe Threat Today

This morning sees an expansive low level moisture plume having overspread much of the south-central and south-eastern US, being overspread from the west by midlevel flow exceeding 40 knots. This …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/27/2021/ No Comments/

HSLC Setup to Promote Central US Severe Chances

While a pattern synoptically evident for central US severe weather is still around a week out, the ingredients could come together today for a high shear-low CAPE setup in the …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/13/2021/ No Comments/

Swath of Severe Storms Likely In Central Plains

The atmosphere above the CONUS this afternoon is a mess of midlevel jet dynamics, as an expansive midlevel low over eastern Canada interacts with a negatively tilted longwave diving into …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/08/2021/ No Comments/

Severe Storms Threaten Mid-South

Severe thunderstorms always require the same ingredients- shear, lift, instability, and moisture. Surely, there are synoptically evident ways to get all of these in the same place- a sharp south-central US …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/06/2021/ No Comments/

Active May Pattern Continues with Eastern US Severe, Flooding

A northeastward ejecting southern stream jet streak amidst complex flow aloft will continue a multi-day onslaught of widespread activity, with additional flooding, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes all probable across much …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/04/2021/ No Comments/

Severe Weather Returns as May Enters

Today is May 1st, which may as well be a national holiday to us weather folk. Climatologically, May means a few things, most of which are pretty agreeably awesome. The …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 05/01/2021/ No Comments/

Complex Severe Storm Setup Tomorrow

This morning, a large zone of cutoff midlevel energy is continuing to pivot north towards the Great Lakes, with a subtle upstream shortwave digging into the peripheral jet. Attendant surface …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 04/08/2021/ No Comments/

Compact Trough To Bring Moderate Fire; Marginal Severe Threat to South Central Plains

Spring is my favorite season. The slow progression to warmth, the beautiful complexity of the increasingly common convective setups, and the blooming nature. If you’re anything like me in those …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 03/04/2021/ No Comments/

Some Severe Threat In South-Central US To Start Week

I hope everyone has been enjoying this week of somewhat muted US weather, because a much more active storm cycle appears likely next week. We’re watching two potential winter storms, …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 01/23/2021/ No Comments/

Digging Trough Brings Marginal Severe Thunderstorm Threat To Houston Tomorrow

The midlevel trough that brought stormy conditions to the Pacific Northwest yesterday will deepen steadily today while sliding east. Height gradients will initially be quite diffuse, but an impulse pivoting …

by Jacob Feuerstein/ 01/05/2021/ No Comments/

Severe Storms Expected in the Northeast Today

Hello everyone! While we continue to keep an eye on the subtropical disturbance off the Florida coast (click here for yesterday’s update), the Northeast is gearing up for a severe …

by Jack Sillin/ 05/15/2020/ No Comments/

Another Round of Significant Severe Weather is Likely Across the Deep South Tomorrow

Hello everyone! Another outbreak of significant severe weather is in the forecast for parts of the Deep South tomorrow as low pressure develops in the Red River valley along the …

by Jack Sillin/ 04/18/2020/ No Comments/