We’re less than two months away from the winter solstice (astronomical winter) and nearly a month from meteorological winter (December 1st)! How fast time has flown! Here comes November as it approaches our “doorstep”, and figured I’d give a general pattern overview of what we can expect at least to open up the month. Now, when we think of November, we begin to get a bit antsy on whether or not we may see flakes fly in places that have yet to catch any early season flakes!
However, in terms of snowfall potential, you’ll have to head west for at least the first 7 – 10 days as the general consensus – and a pretty strong one too amongst ensembles – is for many places east of the Rockies to remain above normal and pretty tame in terms of weather! The pattern shift discussed earlier this month is already in motion, with it even “maturing” next week. What do I mean by the latter? Lets look at the progression of the ensemble means of the GEFS, CMC, and EPS comparing current to the first week of November:
Days 5 – 7:
You’ll see solid similarities and a consensus for the height pattern heading into early November. This is largely characterized by a +NAO, -PNA, and +EPO – all warm signals largely for the East Coast and into the Midwest/Plains, which is nicely shown through 850mb temperature anomalies. Above average prevails across the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast before remaining mostly above average widespread east of the Central U.S., with the core of below average temperatures and unsettled weather west and along the Rockies.
Not to get to ahead of myself, but there are certainly growing signals with backed support that at least the second half of the month, we’ll see most likely a reversal in terms of the pattern configuration, where east of the MS River Valley especially toward the Appalachians it’ll reflect more of a wintry type pattern with deeper blues showing up (troughs) in the East with ridging returning back out West. That could certainly excite snow and winter fans in the Northeast; however, for now enjoy the relatively mild temperatures for those not centered out across the Pacific NW, Intermountain West, and the Rockies!