The official start to the Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season is tomorrow and, right on time, we have an area of interest brewing in the Gulf of Mexico.
Before anyone gets a case of the nerves and starts wondering if they need to prepare for a hurricane, this disturbance is simply that: a disturbance.
One look at its satellite presentation tells us it’s currently highly disorganized and, though there seems to be some sort of center apparent, shear has blown any convection ENE of that center. Without convection wrapping around that center, this disturbance will find it hard to organize and intensify.
It’s no surprise then that the miniscule chances of development (5-10%) the EPS had modeled yesterday are nowhere to be found on the most recent run.
However, just because it has only a very very slim chance of tropical development does not mean there won’t be impacts.
For starters, the Florida Peninsula will receive heavy rain from this disturbance through the weekend.
As much of the Peninsula – especially the western side – is deeply in drought, rainfall is great news. Though, as with most rainfall events during a drought situation, it would be best if perhaps it didn’t come all at once. We’ll take what we can get, though.
As with any disturbance tapping into tropical moisture, we’ll need to watch for the possibility of flash flooding. This disturbance will likely take the better part of the latter half of this week to completely clear the peninsula. Repeated heavy rain over the next 4 days or so is bound to cause at least isolated flooding issues.
In addition to some mildly gusty winds, we’ll need to consider the impacts of onshore flow – especially on the eastern side of the peninsula as the disturbance exits the state. Some coastal flooding and rough seas could be on tap early next week.
So in summary: while this disturbance is unlikely to develop further due to relatively unfavorable environmental conditions (shear, dry air), it isn’t without impacts. Gusty winds, heavy rain, and the potential for coastal flooding are all possibilities, name or no name.